Football · USA USL League Two · 01/07, 23:00
New England FC vs Vermont Green
Expected goals: 3.68 (New England FC 1.43 · Vermont Green 2.25). The model gives 23% home, 22% draw, 55% away. Over 3 goals (58%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-2.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New England FC 1597 · Vermont Green 1627
| New England FC | Draw | Vermont Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Market | 23% | 23% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.68New England FC 1.43 · Vermont Green 2.25
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 58%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vermont Green: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New England FC | Vermont Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.5 | 4.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.6 | 4 / 8.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New England FC 0–0–2 Vermont Green
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA USL League Two | Vermont Green | 5-0 HT 3-0 | New England FC |
| 29/06/25 USA USL League Two | Vermont Green | 5-1 HT 3-1 | New England FC |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 8 | 31 |
| 2 | New England FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Connecticut Rush | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
| 7 | Boston Bolts | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 8 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 10 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 3 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New England FC | Vermont Green |
|---|---|---|
| Seacoast United Phantoms | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Black Rock FC | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Boston Bolts | 2-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Albany Rush | 4-0 W | 9-0 W |
| AC Connecticut | 4-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Vermont Green (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New England FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 04/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Vermont Green
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
4-1 | 10-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 9-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/05 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 0 | W |