Football · USA USL League Two · 03/07, 01:30
Apotheos vs East Atlanta FC
Expected goals: 3.24 (Apotheos 1.98 · East Atlanta FC 1.26). The model gives 54% home, 23% draw, 23% away. Under 3.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apotheos 1464 · East Atlanta FC 1405
| Apotheos | Draw | East Atlanta FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.24Apotheos 1.98 · East Atlanta FC 1.26
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apotheos (rating 1464 vs 1405).
- H2H favours Apotheos: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apotheos | East Atlanta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.7 | 1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Apotheos 2–0–1 East Atlanta FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 USA USL League Two | East Atlanta FC | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Apotheos |
| 21/06/25 USA USL League Two | Apotheos | 4-1 HT 2-0 | East Atlanta FC |
| 08/06/25 USA USL League Two | East Atlanta FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Apotheos |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, South Central Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dothan United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Swarm FC | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Columbus United FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 4 | Montgomery United FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 5 | Apotheos | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| 6 | Birmingham Legion FC Futures | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| 7 | East Atlanta FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Apotheos | East Atlanta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Montgomery United FC | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Birmingham Legion FC Futures | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Swarm FC | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Columbus United FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: East Atlanta FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Apotheos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Montgomery United FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Birmingham Legion FC Futures USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | Swarm FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Birmingham Legion FC Futures USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | East Atlanta FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Montgomery United FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | Swarm FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Columbus United FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Columbus United FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/07 | Swarm FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
East Atlanta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Swarm FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Montgomery United FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Dothan United USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Apotheos USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Montgomery United FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Dothan United USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | Columbus United FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Birmingham Legion FC Futures USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/07 | Montgomery United FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | Dothan United USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |