Football · USA USL League Two · 03/07, 02:00
FC Motown STA vs Morris Elite
Expected goals: 4.33 (FC Motown STA 3.16 · Morris Elite 1.16). The model gives 82% home, 11% draw, 8% away. Under 4.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 3-1.
82%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Motown STA 1590 · Morris Elite 1432
| FC Motown STA | Draw | Morris Elite | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 86% | 8% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.33FC Motown STA 3.16 · Morris Elite 1.16
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Motown STA (rating 1590 vs 1432).
- H2H favours FC Motown STA: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Motown STA | Morris Elite | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.3 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Motown STA 4–2–0 Morris Elite
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL League Two | Morris Elite | 0-4 HT 0-2 | FC Motown STA |
| 26/06/25 USA USL League Two | Morris Elite | 1-4 HT 1-1 | FC Motown STA |
| 04/07/24 USA USL League Two | FC Motown STA | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Morris Elite |
| 24/06/24 USA USL League Two | Morris Elite | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Motown STA |
| 07/07/23 USA USL League Two | Morris Elite | 3-3 HT 2-2 | FC Motown STA |
| 18/05/23 USA USL League Two | FC Motown STA | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Morris Elite |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Metropolitan Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ironbound | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Motown STA | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Long Island Rough Riders | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Hudson Valley Hammers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 16 |
| 5 | Cedar Stars Rush | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| 6 | Manhattan SC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| 7 | New Jersey Copa | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 7 |
| 8 | Morris Elite | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 6 |
| 9 | Staten Island ASC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 4 |
| 10 | Westchester Flames | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Motown STA | Morris Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Ironbound | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| New Jersey Copa | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Hudson Valley Hammers | 3-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Long Island Rough Riders | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Manhattan SC | 3-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Cedar Stars Rush | 5-3 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Motown STA (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Motown STA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/06 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Morris Elite
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 08/06 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 13/07 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |