Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 01:30
Charlottesville Blues vs Bethesda SC
Expected goals: 3.12 (Charlottesville Blues 1.89 · Bethesda SC 1.23). The model gives 52% home, 24% draw, 24% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlottesville Blues 1547 · Bethesda SC 1498
| Charlottesville Blues | Draw | Bethesda SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.12Charlottesville Blues 1.89 · Bethesda SC 1.23
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlottesville Blues (rating 1547 vs 1498).
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlottesville Blues | Bethesda SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 2 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 1.5 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Chesapeake Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionsbridge FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Virginia Beach Utd | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Charlottesville Blues | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Christos FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 31 | 20 |
| 5 | Bethesda SC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 14 |
| 6 | Annapolis Blues | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 16 |
| 7 | Northern Virginia FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | Hill City FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 15 |
| 9 | Loudoun United FC II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Virginia Marauders | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 3 |
| 11 | Patuxent Football Athletics | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Charlottesville Blues | Bethesda SC |
|---|---|---|
| Lionsbridge FC | 0-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Hill City FC | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Northern Virginia FC | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Christos FC | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Loudoun United FC II | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Virginia Beach Utd | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Charlottesville Blues (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charlottesville Blues
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Virginia Marauders USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/06 | Christos FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Loudoun United FC II USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Virginia Beach Utd USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Bethesda SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Patuxent Football Athletics USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/06 | Annapolis Blues USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Loudoun United FC II USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/06 | Virginia Beach Utd USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Loudoun United FC II USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Christos FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | Virginia Beach Utd USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | Hill City FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Northern Virginia FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Lionsbridge FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |