Football · USA USL League Two · 01/07, 17:00
Houston FC vs Twin City Toucans
Expected goals: 3.54 (Houston FC 2 · Twin City Toucans 1.55). The model gives 47% home, 24% draw, 29% away. Over 3.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Houston FC 1482 · Twin City Toucans 1447
| Houston FC | Draw | Twin City Toucans | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.54Houston FC 2 · Twin City Toucans 1.55
Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston FC | Twin City Toucans | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.1 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.5 | 2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 1.5 | 4.5 / 1.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston FC 1–4–1 Twin City Toucans
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 USA USL League Two | Twin City Toucans | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Houston FC |
| 20/06/25 USA USL League Two | Houston FC | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Twin City Toucans |
| 17/07/24 USA USL League Two | Houston FC | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Twin City Toucans |
| 03/07/24 USA USL League Two | Twin City Toucans | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Houston FC |
| 14/07/23 USA USL League Two | Twin City Toucans | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Houston FC |
| 09/07/23 USA USL League Two | Houston FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Twin City Toucans |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Lone Star Division
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo Heat | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 23 |
| 2 | GFI Academy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Lonestar SC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | AHFC Royals | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 14 |
| 6 | Houston FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
| 7 | Hill Country Lobos | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 8 |
| 8 | Twin City Toucans | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 9 | AC Houston Sur | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Houston FC | Twin City Toucans |
|---|---|---|
| Lonestar SC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| AC Houston Sur | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| San Antonio FC II | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| GFI Academy | 3-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Laredo Heat | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| AHFC Royals | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Houston FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC II USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | GFI Academy USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 29/05 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/05 | GFI Academy USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | AHFC Royals USA USL League Two |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Twin City Toucans
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | GFI Academy USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/06 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | San Antonio FC II USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | GFI Academy USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | AHFC Royals USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |