Football · USA USL League Two · 03/07, 01:00
Cedar Stars Rush vs Long Island Rough Riders
Expected goals: 3.24 (Cedar Stars Rush 1.2 · Long Island Rough Riders 2.04). The model gives 22% home, 22% draw, 56% away. Under 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cedar Stars Rush 1526 · Long Island Rough Riders 1578
| Cedar Stars Rush | Draw | Long Island Rough Riders | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 22% | 21% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.24Cedar Stars Rush 1.2 · Long Island Rough Riders 2.04
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Long Island Rough Riders (rating 1526 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Long Island Rough Riders: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cedar Stars Rush | Long Island Rough Riders | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.3 | 3.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.7 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cedar Stars Rush 1–0–5 Long Island Rough Riders
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/26 USA USL League Two | Long Island Rough Riders | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Cedar Stars Rush |
| 29/05/25 USA USL League Two | Cedar Stars Rush | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Long Island Rough Riders |
| 30/06/24 USA USL League Two | Long Island Rough Riders | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cedar Stars Rush |
| 02/07/23 USA USL League Two | Cedar Stars Rush | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Long Island Rough Riders |
| 19/06/23 USA USL League Two | Long Island Rough Riders | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Cedar Stars Rush |
| 13/06/22 USA USL League Two | Long Island Rough Riders | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Cedar Stars Rush |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Metropolitan Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ironbound | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Motown STA | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Long Island Rough Riders | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Hudson Valley Hammers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 16 |
| 5 | Cedar Stars Rush | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| 6 | Manhattan SC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| 7 | New Jersey Copa | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 7 |
| 8 | Morris Elite | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 6 |
| 9 | Staten Island ASC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 4 |
| 10 | Westchester Flames | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cedar Stars Rush | Long Island Rough Riders |
|---|---|---|
| Westchester Flames | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Morris Elite | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ironbound | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Staten Island ASC | 1-0 W | 6-0 W |
| New Jersey Copa | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| FC Motown STA | 3-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Manhattan SC | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Long Island Rough Riders (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cedar Stars Rush
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 26/06 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Long Island Rough Riders
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 17/06 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 08/06 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/06 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/05 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |