Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League · 01/07, 11:30
Newcastle Olympic FC vs Charlestown Azzurri
Expected goals: 3.37 (Newcastle Olympic FC 1.68 · Charlestown Azzurri 1.68). The model gives 38% home, 24% draw, 38% away. Over 3.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
38%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newcastle Olympic FC 1462 · Charlestown Azzurri 1413
| Newcastle Olympic FC | Draw | Charlestown Azzurri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 23% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.37Newcastle Olympic FC 1.68 · Charlestown Azzurri 1.68
Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newcastle Olympic FC (rating 1462 vs 1413).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle Olympic FC | Charlestown Azzurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 6 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Olympic FC 3–0–3 Charlestown Azzurri
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Charlestown Azzurri | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Newcastle Olympic FC |
| 01/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Charlestown Azzurri | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Newcastle Olympic FC |
| 02/03/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Newcastle Olympic FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Charlestown Azzurri |
| 24/08/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Charlestown Azzurri | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Newcastle Olympic FC |
| 07/07/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League | Charlestown Azzurri | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Newcastle Olympic FC |
| 08/06/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Newcastle Olympic FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Charlestown Azzurri |
Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Belmont Swansea United SC | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 30 | 32 |
| 3 | Weston Workers FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 27 | 27 |
| 4 | Maitland FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 27 |
| 5 | Edgeworth Eagles | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Lambton Jaffas | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 22 |
| 7 | Cooks Hill United | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 20 |
| 8 | Adamstown Rosebud | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 33 | 17 |
| 9 | Valentine Phoenix | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 16 |
| 10 | Newcastle Olympic FC | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 15 |
| 11 | Charlestown Azzurri | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 14 |
| 12 | Kahibah FC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 14 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle Olympic FC | Charlestown Azzurri |
|---|---|---|
| Cooks Hill United | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Maitland FC | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Kahibah FC | 3-3 D | 1-4 L |
| Adamstown Rosebud | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Lambton Jaffas | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Valentine Phoenix | 6-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Edgeworth Eagles | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| Belmont Swansea United SC | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Broadmeadow Magic | 0-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle Olympic FC (3 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle Olympic FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Valentine Phoenix Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Charlestown Azzurri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/06 | Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Valentine Phoenix Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |