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Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/07, 19:00

Sirius vs Mjällby AIF

Expected goals: 2.84 (Sirius 1.89 · Mjällby AIF 0.96). The model gives 59% home, 23% draw, 18% away. Over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.

59%1
59% 23% 18%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1577 · Mjällby AIF 1562
SiriusDrawMjällby AIF
Our model58%24%18%
Market59%23%19%
Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.84Sirius 1.89 · Mjällby AIF 0.96
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 5-1-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

SiriusMjällby AIF
Goals for / against (FT)2.5 / 1.11.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)1.3 / 0.71 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)70/0/30%50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)3.2 / 52.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.1 / 0.13.4 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 0–1–5 Mjällby AIF

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DateHomeScoreAway
27/07/25
Sweden Allsvenskan
Mjällby AIF2-1
HT 0-1
Sirius
14/07/25
Sweden Allsvenskan
Sirius1-2
HT 0-2
Mjällby AIF
03/11/24
Sweden Allsvenskan
Sirius1-1
HT 1-1
Mjällby AIF
06/07/24
Sweden Allsvenskan
Mjällby AIF3-2
HT 0-0
Sirius
24/07/23
Sweden Allsvenskan
Sirius2-3
HT 1-2
Mjällby AIF
14/05/23
Sweden Allsvenskan
Mjällby AIF3-0
HT 3-0
Sirius

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Sirius 10910 271028
2 BK Hacken 10550 201420
3 Elfsborg 11461 161118
4 Hammarby 11524 241317
5 GAIS 11434 161115
6 Mjällby AIF 10433 141115
7 Brommapojkarna 10433 151615
8 Djurgarden 9414 191313
9 Malmo FF 10415 202013
10 AIK 10334 121612
11 Vasteras SK 10334 172212
12 Degerfors 10244 121610
13 Kalmar FF 10316 111510
14 IFK Goteborg 10244 132210
15 Halmstad 10136 9206
16 Orgryte IS 10136 10256

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSiriusMjällby AIF
GAIS 2-1 W 0-0 D
BK Hacken 2-2 D 0-1 L
Malmo FF 3-2 W 3-2 W
Hammarby 2-0 W 2-1 W
Record vs common 3 W 1 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sirius

WWWDWWWWWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/06 Djurgarden
Club Friendly List
 0-1 1-1 –– D
30/05 AIK
Sweden Allsvenskan
 2-0 3-0 37 W
24/05 GAIS
Sweden Allsvenskan
 2-1 2-1 74 W
18/05 Djurgarden
Sweden Allsvenskan
 2-1 3-2 35 W
11/05 Orgryte IS
Sweden Allsvenskan
 1-0 2-0 51 W
02/05 Kalmar FF
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-2 3-2 64 W
27/04 BK Hacken
Sweden Allsvenskan
 1-2 2-2 111 D
23/04 Malmo FF
Sweden Allsvenskan
 1-0 3-2 34 W
18/04 Vasteras SK
Sweden Allsvenskan
 3-0 4-1 41 W
13/04 Hammarby
Sweden Allsvenskan
 1-0 2-0 32 W

Mjällby AIF

WDWWWWLDDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
24/06 Halmstad
Club Friendly List
 1-0 3-3 61 D
25/05 IFK Goteborg
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-0 1-1 39 D
21/05 Elfsborg
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-1 1-1 34 D
17/05 BK Hacken
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-0 0-1 55 L
14/05 Hammarby
Sweden Cup
 2-1 2-1 35 W
09/05 Degerfors
Sweden Allsvenskan
 3-0 4-1 53 W
03/05 Malmo FF
Sweden Allsvenskan
 1-0 3-2 21 W
27/04 Halmstad
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-0 2-0 82 W
23/04 GAIS
Sweden Allsvenskan
 0-0 0-0 22 D
18/04 Brommapojkarna
Sweden Allsvenskan
 3-0 3-0 54 W