Football · Lebanon League · 03/07, 14:30
Tadamon Sour vs Al Ansar Beirut
Expected goals: 2.77 (Tadamon Sour 0.59 · Al Ansar Beirut 2.19). The model gives 8% home, 17% draw, 74% away. Under 2.75 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 0-2.
74%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tadamon Sour 1426 · Al Ansar Beirut 1577
| Tadamon Sour | Draw | Al Ansar Beirut | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| Market | 9% | 16% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.77Tadamon Sour 0.59 · Al Ansar Beirut 2.19
Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 51%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ansar Beirut (rating 1426 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Al Ansar Beirut: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tadamon Sour | Al Ansar Beirut | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 2.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 14/57/29% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.5 | 2.5 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tadamon Sour 0–1–5 Al Ansar Beirut
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 13/07/25 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 15/06/25 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 30/04/25 Lebanon League | Tadamon Sour | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Al Ansar Beirut |
| 09/03/25 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 28/10/23 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tadamon Sour |
Standings · Lebanon League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar Beirut | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 10 | 43 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 22 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaya FC | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 14 | 37 |
| 5 | Safa Beirut | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Sagesse SC | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al-Sahel | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Al-Mabarrah | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 30 | 17 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Al Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing Beirut | 20 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tadamon Sour | Al Ansar Beirut |
|---|---|---|
| Al Nejmeh | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Al-Mabarrah | 1-1 D | 7-0 W |
| Jwaya FC | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Al Ahed | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Reyady Abaseya | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Shabab Al-Sahel | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Safa Beirut | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Al Ansar Beirut (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tadamon Sour
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
– | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 27/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/01 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/01 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/01 | Al Ahed Lebanon Cup |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Al Ansar Beirut
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Al Nejmeh World Club Friendlies |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 15/05 | Safa Beirut World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Muras United FC AFC Challenge League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |