Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 02:00
Sueno vs RKC Third Coast
Expected goals: 3.16 (Sueno 2.08 · RKC Third Coast 1.08). The model gives 60% home, 22% draw, 18% away. Under 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sueno 1538 · RKC Third Coast 1487
| Sueno | Draw | RKC Third Coast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.16Sueno 2.08 · RKC Third Coast 1.08
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sueno (rating 1538 vs 1487).
- High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sueno | RKC Third Coast | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/11/44% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6.5 | 4 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sueno 0–2–0 RKC Third Coast
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/25 USA USL League Two | RKC Third Coast | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sueno |
| 01/06/25 USA USL League Two | Sueno | 2-2 HT 1-2 | RKC Third Coast |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Heartland Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis City SC | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 27 |
| 2 | Sueno | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Chicago Dutch Lions | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
| 4 | Rockford Raptors | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 5 | River Light SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 6 | St Croix SC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 7 | RKC Third Coast | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | Edgewater Castle FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 6 |
| 9 | Rochester FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sueno | RKC Third Coast |
|---|---|---|
| St Croix SC | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Rockford Raptors | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Minneapolis City SC | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| River Light SC | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Edgewater Castle FC | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Chicago Dutch Lions | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Rochester FC | 7-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sueno (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sueno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Minneapolis City SC Futures USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
RKC Third Coast
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |