Football · USA USL League Two · 03/07, 02:30
Peoria City vs St. Louis Ambush
Expected goals: 3.24 (Peoria City 2.23 · St. Louis Ambush 1.01). The model gives 64% home, 21% draw, 15% away. Under 3.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-1.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Peoria City 1603 · St. Louis Ambush 1463
| Peoria City | Draw | St. Louis Ambush | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.24Peoria City 2.23 · St. Louis Ambush 1.01
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peoria City (rating 1603 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Peoria City: 5-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Peoria City | St. Louis Ambush | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.5 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Peoria City 5–0–0 St. Louis Ambush
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/26 USA USL League Two | Peoria City | 2-0 HT 1-0 | St. Louis Ambush |
| 10/05/26 USA USL League Two | St. Louis Ambush | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Peoria City |
| 25/06/25 USA USL League Two | St. Louis Ambush | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Peoria City |
| 18/05/25 USA USL League Two | Peoria City | 3-1 HT 1-1 | St. Louis Ambush |
| 11/05/25 USA USL League Two | St. Louis Ambush | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Peoria City |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Great Plains Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peoria City | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Santafe Wanderers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Sunflower State FC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 12 |
| 4 | Des Moines Menace | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 10 |
| 5 | St. Louis Ambush | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 6 | Springfield FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Peoria City | St. Louis Ambush |
|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Menace | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Sunflower State FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Springfield FC | 5-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Santafe Wanderers | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Peoria City (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Peoria City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Des Moines Menace USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | St. Louis Ambush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Sunflower State FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Springfield FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Santafe Wanderers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Santafe Wanderers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 28/05 | Springfield FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Des Moines Menace USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | St. Louis Ambush USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Minneapolis City SC Futures USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
St. Louis Ambush
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Springfield FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Peoria City USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/06 | Des Moines Menace USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Sunflower State FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Springfield FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Santafe Wanderers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Santafe Wanderers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/05 | Springfield FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Sunflower State FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Peoria City USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |