Football · Chile Cup · 02/07, 02:30
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera
Expected goals: 2.94 (Universidad de Chile 1.92 · Union La Calera 1.02). The model gives 57% home, 24% draw, 19% away. Over 2.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile 1548 · Union La Calera 1495
| Universidad de Chile | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.94Universidad de Chile 1.92 · Union La Calera 1.02
Over / Under 2.75Over 2.75 · 50%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1548 vs 1495).
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad de Chile | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.8 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Chile 2–2–2 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Universidad de Chile |
| 14/06/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Universidad de Chile |
| 10/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Union La Calera | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Chile |
| 24/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Universidad de Chile | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Union La Calera |
| 29/07/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Universidad de Chile |
| 24/02/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Cup · Copa Chile 2026, Group D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad de Chile | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Union San Felipe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Union La Calera | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Santiago Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad de Chile | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| Union San Felipe | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Santiago Wanderers | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Audax Italiano | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| La Serena | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad de Chile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | Union La Calera Chile Cup |
1-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 10 | W |
| 17/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |