Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 01/07, 18:00

FK Atmosfera vs FK BE1

Expected goals: 2.52 (FK Atmosfera 1.28 · FK BE1 1.24). The model gives 37% home, 28% draw, 35% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.

37%1

37% 28% 35%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atmosfera 1502 · FK BE1 1539

	FK Atmosfera	Draw	FK BE1
Our model	36%	29%	34%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.52FK Atmosfera 1.28 · FK BE1 1.24

Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 53%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK BE1: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atmosfera	FK BE1
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.38 → 2.38 – 0%

X 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

2 2.50 → 2.50 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atmosfera 2–0–4 FK BE1

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-3 HT 1-1	FK Atmosfera
10/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-4 HT 2-3	FK BE1
17/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-0 HT 1-0	FK BE1
26/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
15/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
31/05/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	0-2 HT 0-0	FK BE1

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	15	13	1	1	39	9	40
2	FK Babrungas	15	12	3	0	26	4	39
3	FK BE1	14	9	2	3	27	15	29
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	15	9	1	5	20	17	28
5	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
6	FK Tauras	14	8	1	5	24	15	25
7	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
8	FK Atmosfera	14	6	3	5	23	16	21
9	BFA Vilnius	14	6	1	7	15	24	19
10	Lietava Jonava	15	4	5	6	18	20	17
11	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
12	FK Transinvest II	15	4	2	9	13	36	14
13	FC Hegelmann II	14	4	1	9	15	29	13
14	FK Ekranas	14	2	1	11	15	26	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	15	2	1	12	7	24	7
16	FK Siauliai II	14	1	4	9	12	32	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atmosfera	FK BE1
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Babrungas	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Tauras	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Atmosfera

LLDWLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
23/05	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/05	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
16/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	1	2	W
09/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
02/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
25/04	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	3	12	L

FK BE1

WLWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
08/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W
02/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
28/04	FM Klaipedos Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W