Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 02/07, 17:00

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FC Hegelmann II

Expected goals: 3.14 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.88 · FC Hegelmann II 1.26). The model gives 51% home, 23% draw, 25% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.

51%1

51% 23% 25%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1440 · FC Hegelmann II 1475

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	51%	25%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.14FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.88 · FC Hegelmann II 1.26

Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%

BTTSYes · 56%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

X 4.00 → 4.00 – 0%

2 3.50 → 3.50 – 0%

Over/Under 3

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1–1–0 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
26/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-3 HT 3-1	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	15	13	1	1	39	9	40
2	FK Babrungas	15	12	3	0	26	4	39
3	FK BE1	14	9	2	3	27	15	29
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	15	9	1	5	20	17	28
5	DFK Dainava	15	8	3	4	26	15	27
6	FK Tauras	14	8	1	5	24	15	25
7	FK Garliava	15	6	4	5	22	14	22
8	FK Atmosfera	14	6	3	5	23	16	21
9	BFA Vilnius	14	6	1	7	15	24	19
10	Lietava Jonava	15	4	5	6	18	20	17
11	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	14	4	3	7	18	24	15
12	FK Transinvest II	15	4	2	9	13	36	14
13	FC Hegelmann II	14	4	1	9	15	29	13
14	FK Ekranas	14	2	1	11	15	26	7
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	15	2	1	12	7	24	7
16	FK Siauliai II	14	1	4	9	12	32	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FC Hegelmann II
Lietava Jonava	1-2 L	2-1 W
BFA Vilnius	3-4 L	1-0 W
FK Babrungas	0-3 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-2 D	1-6 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-2 L	2-3 L
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	2-3 L
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

DDLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
22/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-4	6	5	L
15/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
08/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	3	8	D
02/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
24/04	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
19/04	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	11	5	D

FC Hegelmann II

WWLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
30/05	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-6	3	0	L
22/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	3	4	L
15/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	0	0	L
11/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
03/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
24/04	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/04	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	1	7	W