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Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 02/07, 16:00

BFA Vilnius vs FK Ekranas

Expected goals: 2.85 (BFA Vilnius 1.7 · FK Ekranas 1.16). The model gives 49% home, 25% draw, 25% away. Under 2.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

49%1
49% 25% 25%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1478 · FK Ekranas 1431
BFA VilniusDrawFK Ekranas
Our model49%26%25%
Market50%25%26%
Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.85BFA Vilnius 1.7 · FK Ekranas 1.16
Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 51%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFA Vilnius (rating 1478 vs 1431).
  • H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 3-2-1.
  • High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

BFA VilniusFK Ekranas
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 2.21.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.70.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/60/40%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.7 / 5.33.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.6 / 0.24.1 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 3–2–1 FK Ekranas

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DateHomeScoreAway
23/07/25
Lithuania 1 Lyga
BFA Vilnius1-0
HT 1-0
FK Ekranas
09/03/25
Lithuania 1 Lyga
FK Ekranas0-2
HT 0-0
BFA Vilnius
04/08/24
Lithuania 1 Lyga
FK Ekranas1-1
HT 1-0
BFA Vilnius
09/03/24
Lithuania 1 Lyga
BFA Vilnius1-1
HT 1-0
FK Ekranas
12/08/23
Lithuania 1 Lyga
FK Ekranas1-0
HT 0-0
BFA Vilnius
25/04/23
Lithuania Cup
BFA Vilnius2-0
HT 1-0
FK Ekranas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 FK Minija 151311 39940
2 FK Babrungas 151230 26439
3 FK BE1 14923 271529
4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda 15915 201728
5 DFK Dainava 15834 261527
6 FK Tauras 14815 241525
7 FK Garliava 15645 221422
8 FK Atmosfera 14635 231621
9 BFA Vilnius 14617 152419
10 Lietava Jonava 15456 182017
11 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 14437 182415
12 FK Transinvest II 15429 133614
13 FC Hegelmann II 14419 152913
14 FK Ekranas 142111 15267
15 FK Kauno Zalgiris II 152112 7247
16 FK Siauliai II 14149 12327

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBFA VilniusFK Ekranas
FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1-0 W 1-0 W
FC Hegelmann II 0-1 L 1-3 L
FK Garliava 2-1 W 1-3 L
FK Atmosfera 0-5 L 1-2 L
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

LLLWWWLLLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 1-0 114 W
23/06 FK Kauno Zalgiris
Lithuania Cup
 0-1 0-3 42 L
20/06 FC Hegelmann II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 0-1 105 L
13/06 FK Minija
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-2 0-3 36 L
30/05 Lietava Jonava
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 1-0 30 W
22/05 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-2 4-3 65 W
19/05 FK Garliava
Lithuania Cup
 1-1 2-1 67 W
16/05 FK Atmosfera
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-1 0-5 22 L
09/05 FK Garliava
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 1-2 63 L
01/05 FK Babrungas
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 0-4 24 L

FK Ekranas

LLLWDWLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 FK Atmosfera
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-2 1-2 62 L
20/06 FK Tauras
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-1 1-2 53 L
05/06 FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-1 1-2 410 L
29/05 DFK Dainava
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-1 0-2 56 L
22/05 FK Transinvest II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 3-0 4-0 73 W
17/05 FK Siauliai II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-0 2-2 81 D
08/05 FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-0 1-0 74 W
02/05 FK Garliava
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-1 1-3 74 L
24/04 FK BE1
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 0-1 1-2 15 L
18/04 FC Hegelmann II
Lithuania 1 Lyga
 1-1 1-3 37 L