Football · USA NPSL · 02/07, 01:00

Ristozi FC vs Grove Soccer United

Expected goals: 3.94 (Ristozi FC 2.81 · Grove Soccer United 1.14). The model gives 72% home, 16% draw, 13% away. Over 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 2-1.

72%1

72% 16% 13%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ristozi FC 1591 · Grove Soccer United 1474

	Ristozi FC	Draw	Grove Soccer United
Our model	71%	16%	12%
Market	72%	15%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.94Ristozi FC 2.81 · Grove Soccer United 1.14

Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 58%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ristozi FC (rating 1591 vs 1474).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ristozi FC	Grove Soccer United
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	0.5 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.25 → 1.25 – 0%

X 6.00 → 6.00 – 0%

2 7.00 → 7.00 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ristozi FC 0–0–1 Grove Soccer United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/25 USA NPSL	Grove Soccer United	1-0 HT 1-0	Ristozi FC

Standings · USA NPSL · NPSL 2026, Mid-Atlantic Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ristozi FC	9	8	0	1	31	10	24
2	Virginia Atlantic	9	6	0	3	17	15	18
3	Virginia Dream	8	5	1	2	22	9	16
4	District Elite	10	4	2	4	20	19	14
5	FC Frederick	9	4	2	3	20	24	14
6	Alexandria Reds	9	4	1	4	16	12	13
7	Grove Soccer United	9	3	1	5	11	17	10
8	Hub City FC	9	2	1	6	15	29	7
9	DMV Elite FC	10	1	0	9	8	25	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ristozi FC	Grove Soccer United
Virginia Dream	1-0 W	1-3 L
Hub City FC	7-0 W	1-6 L
DMV Elite FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
District Elite	3-0 W	0-0 D
Alexandria Reds	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Frederick	7-1 W	1-2 L
Virginia Atlantic	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ristozi FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ristozi FC

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Virginia Dream USA NPSL	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
25/06	Hub City FC USA NPSL	2-0	7-0	7	2	W
18/06	DMV Elite FC USA NPSL	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/06	District Elite USA NPSL	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
12/06	District Elite USA NPSL	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
07/06	Alexandria Reds USA NPSL	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/05	FC Frederick USA NPSL	4-0	7-1	–	–	W
24/05	Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
17/05	DMV Elite FC USA NPSL	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
19/03	Charlotte Independence USA US Open Cup	1-1	1-4	1	2	L

Grove Soccer United

DLDLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Alexandria Reds USA NPSL	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
21/06	Virginia Dream USA NPSL	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
17/06	Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
13/06	DMV Elite FC USA NPSL	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/06	FC Frederick USA NPSL	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
04/06	Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/05	Hub City FC USA NPSL	1-3	1-6	–	–	L
28/05	District Elite USA NPSL	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Alexandria Reds USA NPSL	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
10/07	Virginia Dream USA NPSL	2-0	2-2	5	5	D