Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:15
FC Kontu vs PPS
Expected goals: 4.83 (FC Kontu 3.42 · PPS 1.42). The model gives 80% home, 12% draw, 8% away. Under 5.25 goals (56%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 3-1.
80%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Kontu 1454 · PPS 1382
| FC Kontu | Draw | PPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 12% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.83 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.83FC Kontu 3.42 · PPS 1.42
Over / Under 5.25Under 5.25 · 56%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kontu (rating 1454 vs 1382).
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Kontu | PPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.5 | 0.7 / 4.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.5 | 0.1 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 0/33/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PPJ/Lauttasaari | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | MPS/Atletico Malmi | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 18 | 24 |
| 3 | ToTe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Valtti | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 18 |
| 5 | LPS Helsinki | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 16 |
| 6 | HPS II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 14 |
| 7 | Tips Vantaa | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 28 | 12 |
| 8 | VJS Vantaa II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 11 |
| 9 | Töölön Taisto | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 18 | 11 |
| 10 | Atlantis FC/PM | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 38 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Kontu | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 7 |
| 12 | PPS | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 43 | 3 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Kontu | PPS |
|---|---|---|
| LPS Helsinki | 3-4 L | 0-3 L |
| VJS Vantaa II | 1-0 W | 0-11 L |
| Tips Vantaa | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Töölön Taisto | 3-3 D | 0-5 L |
| ToTe | 2-7 L | 0-2 L |
| Valtti | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| PPJ/Lauttasaari | 0-0 D | 0-9 L |
| MPS/Atletico Malmi | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| HPS II | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Atlantis FC/PM | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 5 L | 1 W 0 D 9 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Kontu (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Kontu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | ToTe Finland Kolmonen |
1-4 | 2-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Valtti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 23/04 | HPS II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 17/04 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
PPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 0-9 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Valtti Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 07/06 | Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 0-11 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 15/05 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | HPS II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | ToTe Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |