Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/07, 19:45

MPS vs EIF Academy

Expected goals: 4.07 (MPS 1.07 · EIF Academy 2.99). The model gives 10% home, 14% draw, 76% away. Under 4.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-2.

76%2

10% 14% 76%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1489 · EIF Academy 1555

	MPS	Draw	EIF Academy
Our model	10%	15%	75%
Market	11%	13%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.07MPS 1.07 · EIF Academy 2.99

Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 54%

BTTSYes · 57%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EIF Academy (rating 1489 vs 1555).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	EIF Academy
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	3.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

18.50

X7.00

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.98

2 (-2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 8.50 → 8.50 – 0%

X 7.00 → 7.00 – 0%

2 1.20 → 1.20 – 0%

Over/Under 4.5

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Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	10	7	1	2	42	19	22
2	ESPA	10	7	1	2	28	11	22
3	Poxyt	11	6	1	4	26	22	19
4	LePa	10	5	2	3	19	19	17
5	NuPS	11	4	4	3	19	14	16
6	LoPa	11	5	1	5	16	17	16
7	MPS	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
8	GrIFK Reservi	10	3	2	5	20	21	11
9	Gilla FC	10	3	2	5	19	21	11
10	HooGee	10	3	1	6	14	25	10
11	EPS Reservi	10	2	3	5	16	30	9
12	PPJ/Ruoholahti	10	2	3	5	13	28	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	EIF Academy
Poxyt	3-2 W	7-3 W
NuPS	0-2 L	0-2 L
EPS Reservi	0-0 D	9-2 W
HooGee	2-0 W	4-2 W
LePa	0-1 L	2-3 L
ESPA	0-4 L	1-1 D
LoPa	0-2 L	3-2 W
GrIFK Reservi	4-2 W	3-1 W
Gilla FC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: EIF Academy (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

MPS

DWLLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-4	2	1	L
08/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
23/04	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	1	D

EIF Academy

WLLWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-2	3	1	W
17/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	3-2	9-2	11	1	W
10/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	9	4	W
05/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	4-2	7-3	3	4	W
27/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
21/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
15/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-2	3	1	W
07/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
29/04	FC Haka Finland Cup	0-3	0-7	3	1	L
26/04	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	9	2	W