Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 02/07, 22:30
Atletico FC Guayaquil vs El Nacional
Expected goals: 2.52 (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.79 · El Nacional 0.74). The model gives 62% home, 24% draw, 14% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-0.
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1515 · El Nacional 1401
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | Draw | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.52Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.79 · El Nacional 0.74
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico FC Guayaquil (rating 1515 vs 1401).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.8 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 El Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico FC Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Independiente Juniors | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Cumbaya | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico FC Guayaquil | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 22 de Julio | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Gualaceo SC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| LDU Portoviejo | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 5 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico FC Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 29/04 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/04 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 17/04 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/04 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |