Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 02/07, 22:30
Cumbaya vs 22 de Julio
Expected goals: 2.24 (Cumbaya 1.36 · 22 de Julio 0.88). The model gives 48% home, 29% draw, 24% away. Under 2.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cumbaya 1515 · 22 de Julio 1420
| Cumbaya | Draw | 22 de Julio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.24Cumbaya 1.36 · 22 de Julio 0.88
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 54%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbaya (rating 1515 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Cumbaya: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cumbaya | 22 de Julio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/25/25% | 0/75/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 3 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.4 | 3 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cumbaya 3–0–2 22 de Julio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | 22 de Julio | 2-1 | Cumbaya |
| 15/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | 22 de Julio | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Cumbaya |
| 16/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 2-0 HT 1-0 | 22 de Julio |
| 10/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | 22 de Julio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 01/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 4-0 HT 3-0 | 22 de Julio |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Independiente Juniors | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Cumbaya | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cumbaya | 22 de Julio |
|---|---|---|
| Gualaceo SC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Independiente Juniors | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| El Nacional | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 13/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/04 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
22 de Julio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Astillero FC Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |