Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 02/07, 13:00
Palmerston Rovers FC vs Garuda FC
Expected goals: 4.5 (Palmerston Rovers FC 2.92 · Garuda FC 1.58). The model gives 64% home, 18% draw, 18% away. Under 4.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1466 · Garuda FC 1373
| Palmerston Rovers FC | Draw | Garuda FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 17% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Palmerston Rovers FC 2.92 · Garuda FC 1.58
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmerston Rovers FC (rating 1466 vs 1373).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmerston Rovers FC | Garuda FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 1.1 / 4.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 2.1 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 1–0–0 Garuda FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Palmerston Rovers FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | Port Darwin FC | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 32 | 27 |
| 3 | Mindil Aces | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 23 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 56 | 12 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 40 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 65 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palmerston Rovers FC | Garuda FC |
|---|---|---|
| Casuarina FC | 3-2 W | 0-6 L |
| Mindil Aces | 1-6 L | 0-4 L |
| Port Darwin FC | 0-10 L | 3-5 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-6 L | 0-10 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Hellenic AC | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 2-7 L | 1-9 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Palmerston Rovers FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmerston Rovers FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-6 | 0-10 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-6 | 2-7 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/04 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
Garuda FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-10 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-5 | 1-9 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 23/04 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |