Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 03/07, 11:00
University Azzurri FC vs Casuarina FC
Expected goals: 4.82 (University Azzurri FC 3.41 · Casuarina FC 1.41). The model gives 83% home, 10% draw, 7% away. Under 5.25 goals (57%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 3-1.
83%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1672 · Casuarina FC 1458
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 12% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.82 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.82University Azzurri FC 3.41 · Casuarina FC 1.41
Over / Under 5.25Under 5.25 · 57%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1672 vs 1458).
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.8 / 1 | 2.6 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.8 | 1.6 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 5–0–1 Casuarina FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-4 HT 1-2 | University Azzurri FC |
| 30/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 21/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 03/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 30/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 3-1 HT 3-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 06/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Casuarina FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | Port Darwin FC | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 32 | 27 |
| 3 | Mindil Aces | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 23 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 56 | 12 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 40 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 65 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University Azzurri FC | Casuarina FC |
|---|---|---|
| Garuda FC | 10-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Mindil Aces | 3-2 W | 4-3 W |
| Hellenic AC | 5-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 3-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Port Darwin FC | 6-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/04 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 2 | L |