Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 03/07, 13:00

Hellenic AC vs Mindil Aces

Expected goals: 4.5 (Hellenic AC 1.25 · Mindil Aces 3.25). The model gives 9% home, 12% draw, 80% away. Under 4.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-3.

80%2

9% 12% 80%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hellenic AC 1435 · Mindil Aces 1547

	Hellenic AC	Draw	Mindil Aces
Our model	11%	14%	76%
Market	7%	10%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.5Hellenic AC 1.25 · Mindil Aces 3.25

Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 51%

BTTSYes · 59%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1435 vs 1547).
H2H favours Mindil Aces: 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hellenic AC	Mindil Aces
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3.7	3.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

113.00

X9.00

21.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.90

2 (-3)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 13.00 → 13.00 – 0%

X 9.00 → 9.00 – 0%

2 1.10 → 1.10 – 0%

Over/Under 4.5

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellenic AC 1–2–3 Mindil Aces

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	4-0 HT 3-0	Hellenic AC
19/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-2 HT 0-2	Hellenic AC
17/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	0-2 HT 0-1	Mindil Aces
29/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Mindil Aces	2-2 HT 2-2	Hellenic AC
15/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 1-1	Hellenic AC
28/09/24 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-0 HT 1-0	Hellenic AC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	14	12	1	1	57	14	37
2	Port Darwin FC	13	9	0	4	49	32	27
3	Mindil Aces	13	8	1	4	44	13	25
4	Darwin Hearts	14	7	2	5	32	28	23
5	Darwin Olympic	13	6	3	4	39	25	21
6	Casuarina FC	13	5	2	6	29	30	17
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	13	4	0	9	21	56	12
8	Hellenic AC	13	2	3	8	19	40	9
9	Garuda FC	14	0	2	12	13	65	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hellenic AC	Mindil Aces
Garuda FC	2-0 W	4-0 W
University Azzurri FC	1-5 L	2-3 L
Darwin Olympic	2-2 D	1-1 D
Casuarina FC	1-5 L	3-4 L
Port Darwin FC	2-6 L	8-0 W
Darwin Hearts	2-3 L	4-0 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	0-1 L	6-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hellenic AC

LDLLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
14/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	0	4	L
02/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-2	5	1	D
29/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	0	L
24/05	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-6	6	1	L
16/05	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-4	2	1	L
12/05	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
09/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
23/04	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-4	6	4	D
18/04	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-3	2-7	4	3	L

Mindil Aces

LWLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	6-1	3	1	W
19/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	8-0	5	3	W
06/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
09/05	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
03/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-4	3	1	L
26/04	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/04	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L