Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 02/07, 11:00

Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC

Expected goals: 4.4 (Darwin Olympic 1.87 · Port Darwin FC 2.53). The model gives 28% home, 20% draw, 52% away. Over 4.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 1-2.

52%2

28% 20% 52%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1519 · Port Darwin FC 1535

	Darwin Olympic	Draw	Port Darwin FC
Our model	28%	20%	52%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.4Darwin Olympic 1.87 · Port Darwin FC 2.53

Over / Under 4.25Over 4.25 · 50%

BTTSYes · 63%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Olympic	Port Darwin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 2.2	3.9 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 2.3 · xG: 6.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 3.20 → 3.20 – 0%

X 4.50 → 4.50 – 0%

2 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

Over/Under 4.25

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 3–0–3 Port Darwin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	6-1 HT 2-1	Darwin Olympic
02/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Darwin Olympic	2-4 HT 1-2	Port Darwin FC
26/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Darwin Olympic
24/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-4 HT 2-3	Port Darwin FC
22/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Darwin Olympic
27/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League	Port Darwin FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Olympic

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	14	12	1	1	57	14	37
2	Port Darwin FC	13	9	0	4	49	32	27
3	Mindil Aces	13	8	1	4	44	13	25
4	Darwin Hearts	14	7	2	5	32	28	23
5	Darwin Olympic	13	6	3	4	39	25	21
6	Casuarina FC	13	5	2	6	29	30	17
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	13	4	0	9	21	56	12
8	Hellenic AC	13	2	3	8	19	40	9
9	Garuda FC	14	0	2	12	13	65	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Olympic	Port Darwin FC
Darwin Hearts	2-3 L	1-3 L
Garuda FC	9-1 W	5-3 W
Hellenic AC	2-2 D	6-2 W
University Azzurri FC	0-3 L	1-6 L
Casuarina FC	4-2 W	5-1 W
Mindil Aces	1-1 D	0-8 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	7-2 W	10-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Darwin Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
12/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	9-1	4	1	W
02/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
30/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	4-2	4	5	W
16/05	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	1-6	3	3	L
09/05	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
01/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-0	7-2	8	1	W
25/04	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
18/04	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	8-1	3	3	W

Port Darwin FC

WWLWLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
20/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-0	10-0	14	2	W
13/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-8	7	3	L
30/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	5-3	8	2	W
24/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	6-2	7	1	W
20/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-2	1-6	8	1	L
16/05	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	6-1	6	3	W
12/05	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
08/05	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	5-1	7	2	W
02/05	Stormbirds SC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-0	4-1	8	2	W