Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:00
Kumu vs LAUTP II
Expected goals: 3.44 (Kumu 1.98 · LAUTP II 1.47). The model gives 49% home, 22% draw, 28% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kumu 1397 · LAUTP II 1390
| Kumu | Draw | LAUTP II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 50% | 21% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.44Kumu 1.98 · LAUTP II 1.47
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kumu | LAUTP II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 4 | 0.4 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 2.3 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/0/100% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PeKa | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | IPS Edustus | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Kultsu FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | MiPK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 |
| 5 | HaPK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 19 |
| 6 | LAUTP | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 14 |
| 7 | KJP | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 13 |
| 8 | KoPa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 13 |
| 9 | MP II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 9 |
| 10 | Edustus STPS | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
| 11 | Kumu | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 4 |
| 12 | LAUTP II | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kumu | LAUTP II |
|---|---|---|
| LAUTP | 2-6 L | 1-6 L |
| Kultsu FC | 0-5 L | 0-8 L |
| KoPa | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| KJP | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| MP II | 2-6 L | 2-4 L |
| IPS Edustus | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| HaPK | 1-5 L | 0-0 D |
| PeKa | 0-7 L | 1-4 L |
| Edustus STPS | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| MiPK | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 8 L | 0 W 1 D 9 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kumu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 2-6 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 17/06 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | KoPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | MP II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-6 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | HaPK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 07/05 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-7 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | MiPK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
LAUTP II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-8 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | KoPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | KJP Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/06 | MP II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | HaPK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 13/05 | PeKa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/05 | Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/04 | MiPK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | LAUTP Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-6 | – | – | L |