Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:00
TuPS vs TiPS U21
Expected goals: 4.04 (TuPS 2.97 · TiPS U21 1.08). The model gives 75% home, 14% draw, 11% away. Under 4.25 goals (55%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · TuPS 1501 · TiPS U21 1417
| TuPS | Draw | TiPS U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market | 76% | 13% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.04TuPS 2.97 · TiPS U21 1.08
Over / Under 4.25Under 4.25 · 55%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TuPS (rating 1501 vs 1417).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TuPS | TiPS U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/25/38% | 14/29/57% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.8 | 2.9 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.4 | 3.7 / 0 |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Futura | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | Sibbov | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 19 |
| 3 | Atlantis II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | FC Lahti II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | RiPS | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 16 |
| 6 | JäPS/47 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | TuPS | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 8 | Gnistan/Ogeli | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 9 |
| 9 | Ponnistus | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 8 |
| 10 | ToTe/Tapio | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 3 |
| 11 | TiPS U21 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 2 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TuPS | TiPS U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Ponnistus | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Sibbov | 3-6 L | 2-4 L |
| MK United | 5-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Lahti II | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Gnistan/Ogeli | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| JäPS/47 | 3-2 W | 0-4 L |
| RiPS | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Atlantis II | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| FC Futura | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| ToTe/Tapio | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: TuPS (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TuPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 3-6 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | MK United Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
TiPS U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | RiPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 11/06 | JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Sibbov Finland Kolmonen |
2-4 | 2-4 | 13 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | MK United Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | FC Futura Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/04 | Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 17/04 | Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |