Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 19:00

Fish United vs Ylojarvi United

Expected goals: 3.31 (Fish United 1.37 · Ylojarvi United 1.94). The model gives 27% home, 22% draw, 51% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.

51%2

27% 22% 51%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fish United 1438 · Ylojarvi United 1505

	Fish United	Draw	Ylojarvi United
Our model	26%	24%	50%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.31Fish United 1.37 · Ylojarvi United 1.94

Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%

BTTSYes · 58%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ylojarvi United (rating 1438 vs 1505).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fish United	Ylojarvi United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	63/13/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 3.20 → 3.20 – 0%

X 4.50 → 4.50 – 0%

2 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

Over/Under 3.5

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Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	10	10	0	0	47	9	30
2	Tampere Utd II	10	8	1	1	19	8	25
3	TPV II	10	7	1	2	22	12	22
4	NoPS	10	6	2	2	29	15	20
5	Ylojarvi United	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
6	FC Haka Juniors	10	5	0	5	24	19	15
7	Saaksjærven Loiske	10	3	2	5	12	24	11
8	FC LeKi	9	3	1	5	16	19	10
9	TP-T	9	2	2	5	16	20	8
10	Fish United	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
11	ACE	10	1	1	8	15	32	4
12	TP-49	10	0	1	9	5	35	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fish United	Ylojarvi United
Saaksjærven Loiske	0-0 D	0-4 L
FC Haka Juniors	0-3 L	4-2 W
FC Lasten	0-6 L	0-4 L
TPV II	1-2 L	2-2 D
Tampere Utd II	0-2 L	0-1 L
NoPS	1-3 L	3-1 W
FC LeKi	1-2 L	1-0 W
TP-49	2-0 W	4-0 W
TP-T	2-2 D	1-3 L
ACE	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ylojarvi United (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fish United

WDWLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-6	4	1	L
28/05	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
14/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
08/05	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/04	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
23/04	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
19/04	ACE Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	8	6	W

Ylojarvi United

WWWLDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
11/06	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
05/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	0-4	–	–	L
28/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	4	2	W
21/05	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
14/05	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
24/04	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
18/04	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	6	1	W