Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:00

KJP vs PeKa

Expected goals: 3.66 (KJP 1.09 · PeKa 2.56). The model gives 14% home, 17% draw, 69% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-2.

69%2

14% 17% 69%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KJP 1489 · PeKa 1593

	KJP	Draw	PeKa
Our model	13%	18%	68%
Market	14%	16%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.66KJP 1.09 · PeKa 2.56

Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%

BTTSYes · 57%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PeKa (rating 1489 vs 1593).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KJP	PeKa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	3.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	75/0/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.8	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.50

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.88

2 (-1.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 6.25 → 6.25 – 0%

X 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

2 1.30 → 1.30 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KJP 0–2–0 PeKa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	2-2	PeKa
30/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	PeKa	1-1	KJP

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PeKa	10	8	1	1	35	13	25
2	IPS Edustus	10	7	3	0	20	11	24
3	Kultsu FC	10	7	2	1	29	7	23
4	MiPK	10	6	2	2	24	14	20
5	HaPK	10	6	1	3	25	17	19
6	LAUTP	10	4	2	4	22	20	14
7	KJP	10	4	1	5	17	14	13
8	KoPa	10	4	1	5	11	19	13
9	MP II	10	3	0	7	19	21	9
10	Edustus STPS	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
11	Kumu	10	1	1	8	10	40	4
12	LAUTP II	10	0	1	9	4	31	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KJP	PeKa
Edustus STPS	1-3 L	3-2 W
MiPK	1-3 L	1-2 L
LAUTP II	1-0 W	4-1 W
Kumu	4-0 W	7-0 W
Kultsu FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
KoPa	4-0 W	5-1 W
LAUTP	2-2 D	3-1 W
MP II	3-1 W	3-1 W
IPS Edustus	0-1 L	3-3 D
HaPK	0-1 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PeKa (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KJP

LLWDWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
11/06	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/06	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
14/05	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
06/05	MP II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
02/05	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L

PeKa

WWWWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
16/06	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
13/06	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
04/06	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
27/05	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/05	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/05	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
07/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	2-0	7-0	4	1	W
29/04	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
24/04	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-1	7	3	W