Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:00

FC Ylivieska vs LBK

Expected goals: 4.39 (FC Ylivieska 2.8 · LBK 1.6). The model gives 62% home, 18% draw, 20% away. Over 4.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.

62%1

62% 18% 20%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Ylivieska 1495 · LBK 1429

	FC Ylivieska	Draw	LBK
Our model	62%	18%	20%
Market	62%	18%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.39FC Ylivieska 2.8 · LBK 1.6

Over / Under 4.25Over 4.25 · 51%

BTTSYes · 62%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ylivieska (rating 1495 vs 1429).
H2H favours FC Ylivieska: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Ylivieska	LBK
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.4	1.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X5.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.44 → 1.44 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 4.50 → 4.50 – 0%

Over/Under 4.25

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ylivieska 2–0–0 LBK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Ylivieska	4-3 HT 2-2	LBK
27/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Ylivieska

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	11	9	1	1	37	7	28
2	FC Kiisto	9	6	2	1	27	13	20
3	Virkia	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
4	SJK-j	10	4	3	3	22	12	15
5	Nykarleby IK	10	4	2	4	15	26	14
6	FC Ylivieska	9	4	1	4	30	23	13
7	Sporting Kristina	8	4	1	3	13	11	13
8	SIF	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
9	VPV Pallo-Veikot	8	3	2	3	15	14	11
10	KPV Akatemia	9	2	1	6	22	29	7
11	LBK	10	2	1	7	11	26	7
12	Sääripotku	8	0	1	7	3	42	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Ylivieska	LBK
KPV Akatemia	3-5 L	2-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	4-0 W	1-3 L
SJK-j	2-2 D	0-2 L
SIF	2-1 W	1-4 L
Virkia	1-2 L	0-3 L
Nykarleby IK	4-6 L	5-0 W
Sääripotku	8-0 W	1-1 D
VIFK	2-5 L	0-5 L
Sporting Kristina	4-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Ylivieska

WLLWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	7	L
17/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
04/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
28/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/05	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	3-3	4-6	3	5	L
13/05	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	8-0	–	–	W
09/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	2-5	–	–	L
29/04	RoPS Finland Cup	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
26/04	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	3-2	4-2	7	2	W

LBK

LLLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-0	3	3	W
18/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L
04/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-5	2	5	L
27/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/05	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
03/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
23/04	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-4	0	3	L