Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 01/07, 20:00
Vinotinto Ecuador vs Gualaceo SC
Expected goals: 1.84 (Vinotinto Ecuador 1.04 · Gualaceo SC 0.8). The model gives 40% home, 32% draw, 28% away. Under 2 goals (53%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 0-0.
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vinotinto Ecuador 1527 · Gualaceo SC 1534
| Vinotinto Ecuador | Draw | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.84Vinotinto Ecuador 1.04 · Gualaceo SC 0.8
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 53%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vinotinto Ecuador: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vinotinto Ecuador | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.6 | 5.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vinotinto Ecuador 3–1–2 Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 0-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 14/08/25 Ecuador Cup | Gualaceo SC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 18/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 01/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gualaceo SC |
| 14/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gualaceo SC |
| 21/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Independiente Juniors | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Cumbaya | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vinotinto Ecuador | Gualaceo SC |
|---|---|---|
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Cumbaya | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Independiente Juniors | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| El Nacional | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| 22 de Julio | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Orense Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 03/06 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |