Football · New Zealand Northern League · 01/07, 09:30
Auckland City vs Auckland FC II
Expected goals: 3.02 (Auckland City 2.13 · Auckland FC II 0.89). The model gives 65% home, 20% draw, 14% away. Under 3.25 goals (55%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland City 1574 · Auckland FC II 1502
| Auckland City | Draw | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.02Auckland City 2.13 · Auckland FC II 0.89
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 55%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1574 vs 1502).
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland City | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.3 | 4.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 1–2–1 Auckland FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Auckland City |
| 26/10/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC II |
| 09/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Auckland City |
| 03/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland FC II |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 3 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | Auckland City | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 12 | 27 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 15 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland City | Auckland FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Western Springs AFC | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Birkenhead United | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Auckland United FC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland City (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | South Melbourne OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | South Island United OFC Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | South Island United OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 2 | W |