Football · Brazil Serie C · 01/07, 00:30
Caxias RS vs Anapolis FC
Expected goals: 2.09 (Caxias RS 1.48 · Anapolis FC 0.61). The model gives 58% home, 27% draw, 15% away. Under 2.25 goals (55%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-0.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caxias RS 1547 · Anapolis FC 1482
| Caxias RS | Draw | Anapolis FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 29% | 14% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.09Caxias RS 1.48 · Anapolis FC 0.61
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 55%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caxias RS (rating 1547 vs 1482).
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caxias RS | Anapolis FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.6 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caxias RS 1–0–0 Anapolis FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/25 Brazil Serie C | Caxias RS | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Anapolis FC |
Standings · Brazil Serie C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guarani | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Brusque | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Paysandu | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 4 | Ituano | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Ferroviaria SP | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter de Limeira | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Santa Cruz FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Floresta EC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 18 |
| 9 | Amazonas FC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Caxias RS | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 16 |
| 11 | Maringa FC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | Figueirense | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Ypiranga RS | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Volta Redonda | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| 15 | Maranhao | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 16 | Botafogo PB | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| 17 | Barra FC | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 18 | AD Confianca | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| 19 | Itabaiana | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| 20 | Anapolis FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caxias RS | Anapolis FC |
|---|---|---|
| Maranhao | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Paysandu | 2-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Barra FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Amazonas FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Caxias RS (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caxias RS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 13/06 | Guarani Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 01/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
Anapolis FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 05/06 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Brusque Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 14/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-0 | 5-4 | 2 | 4 | W |