Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 04/07, 08:30
Belconnen United vs Canberra Juventus
Expected goals: 4.08 (Belconnen United 1.7 · Canberra Juventus 2.38). The model gives 27% home, 21% draw, 52% away. Over 3.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-2.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Belconnen United 1401 · Canberra Juventus 1545
| Belconnen United | Draw | Canberra Juventus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.08Belconnen United 1.7 · Canberra Juventus 2.38
Over / Under 3.75Over 3.75 · 51%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canberra Juventus (rating 1401 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Belconnen United: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Belconnen United | Canberra Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.8 | 2.3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.8 | 2.5 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Belconnen United 4–0–2 Canberra Juventus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Juventus | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Belconnen United |
| 12/07/25 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Belconnen United | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Canberra Juventus |
| 04/06/25 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Belconnen United | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Canberra Juventus |
| 17/05/25 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Canberra Juventus | 1-5 HT 1-3 | Belconnen United |
| 24/08/24 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Canberra Juventus | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Belconnen United |
| 29/06/24 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Belconnen United | 7-0 HT 5-0 | Canberra Juventus |
Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Croatia FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 31 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigers FC | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 18 | 28 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong Utd | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 27 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | O'Connor Knights | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 28 | 15 |
| 8 | Canberra Olympic | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 13 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 8 |
| 10 | Brindabella Blues FC | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 6 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Belconnen United | Canberra Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Queanbeyan City | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Brindabella Blues FC | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Canberra White Eagles | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Tuggeranong Utd | 1-3 L | 5-0 W |
| Canberra Olympic | 4-4 D | 3-2 W |
| Monaro Panthers | 1-3 L | 3-5 L |
| Tigers FC | 2-3 L | 1-5 L |
| O'Connor Knights | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Canberra Juventus (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Belconnen United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
Canberra Juventus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/06 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 15 | W |
| 30/05 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Queanbeyan City Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |