Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 04/07, 07:00
Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong Utd
Expected goals: 4.03 (Queanbeyan City 2.35 · Tuggeranong Utd 1.67). The model gives 52% home, 21% draw, 27% away. Over 3.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Queanbeyan City 1565 · Tuggeranong Utd 1539
| Queanbeyan City | Draw | Tuggeranong Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 21% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.03Queanbeyan City 2.35 · Tuggeranong Utd 1.67
Over / Under 3.75Over 3.75 · 50%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tuggeranong Utd: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Queanbeyan City | Tuggeranong Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 2.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.9 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Queanbeyan City 1–2–3 Tuggeranong Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Tuggeranong Utd | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Queanbeyan City |
| 12/07/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Tuggeranong Utd | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Queanbeyan City |
| 11/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Queanbeyan City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tuggeranong Utd |
| 17/05/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Queanbeyan City | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Tuggeranong Utd |
| 18/09/22 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Tuggeranong Utd | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Queanbeyan City |
| 19/06/22 Australia Capital Territory NPL2 | Tuggeranong Utd | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Queanbeyan City |
Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Croatia FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 31 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigers FC | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 18 | 28 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong Utd | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 27 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | O'Connor Knights | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 28 | 15 |
| 8 | Canberra Olympic | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 13 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 8 |
| 10 | Brindabella Blues FC | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 6 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Queanbeyan City | Tuggeranong Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Canberra White Eagles | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Belconnen United | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Monaro Panthers | 2-5 L | 1-6 L |
| Canberra Croatia FC | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| O'Connor Knights | 4-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Canberra Juventus | 3-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Canberra Olympic | 1-0 W | 6-4 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tuggeranong Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Queanbeyan City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 10/06 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Canberra Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 24/04 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
Tuggeranong Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/06 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-4 | 1-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/06 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-4 | 6-4 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |