Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 05/07, 07:00
Canberra Croatia FC vs Canberra Olympic
Expected goals: 4.39 (Canberra Croatia FC 3.01 · Canberra Olympic 1.38). The model gives 70% home, 16% draw, 14% away. Over 4.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Canberra Croatia FC 1592 · Canberra Olympic 1433
| Canberra Croatia FC | Draw | Canberra Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.39Canberra Croatia FC 3.01 · Canberra Olympic 1.38
Over / Under 4.25Over 4.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canberra Croatia FC (rating 1592 vs 1433).
- H2H favours Canberra Croatia FC: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Canberra Croatia FC | Canberra Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Croatia FC 5–1–0 Canberra Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Olympic | 1-5 HT 1-1 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 25/08/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Croatia FC | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Canberra Olympic |
| 29/06/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Olympic | 1-6 HT 0-4 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 11/05/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Olympic | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 09/09/23 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Olympic | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 03/09/23 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Croatia FC | 8-1 HT 4-0 | Canberra Olympic |
Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Croatia FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 31 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigers FC | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 18 | 28 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong Utd | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 29 | 27 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | O'Connor Knights | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 28 | 15 |
| 8 | Canberra Olympic | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 13 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 8 |
| 10 | Brindabella Blues FC | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 6 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Canberra Croatia FC | Canberra Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Tuggeranong Utd | 1-2 L | 4-6 L |
| Tigers FC | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Queanbeyan City | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Belconnen United | 4-1 W | 4-4 D |
| Monaro Panthers | 4-1 W | 2-5 L |
| O'Connor Knights | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Canberra Croatia FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Canberra Croatia FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/06 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 19 | 6 | W |
| 10/06 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/05 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Canberra Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 15 | L |
| 30/05 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
4-2 | 4-6 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 24/04 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-2 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |