Football · Australia Western Australia Premier League · 04/07, 09:00

Western Knights vs Sorrento

Expected goals: 3.07 (Western Knights 1.89 · Sorrento 1.18). The model gives 53% home, 23% draw, 23% away. Under 3.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.

53%1

53% 23% 23%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Western Knights 1439 · Sorrento 1482

	Western Knights	Draw	Sorrento
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.07Western Knights 1.89 · Sorrento 1.18

Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 54%

BTTSYes · 56%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sorrento (rating 1439 vs 1482).
H2H favours Sorrento: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Western Knights	Sorrento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	1.2 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.67 → 1.67 – 0%

X 4.00 → 4.00 – 0%

2 3.80 → 3.80 – 0%

Over/Under 3.25

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Knights 1–1–4 Sorrento

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Sorrento	1-0 HT 1-0	Western Knights
16/08/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Sorrento	2-1 HT 2-0	Western Knights
31/05/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Western Knights	0-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento
23/02/25 Australia Friendlies	Sorrento	3-2 HT 2-1	Western Knights
02/04/18 Australia FFA Cup	Western Knights	0-1 HT 0-0	Sorrento
22/07/17 Australia WA State League Cup	Western Knights	1-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento

Standings · Australia Western Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayswater City	16	10	3	3	41	22	33
2	Perth RedStar FC	15	9	4	2	26	19	31
3	Olympic Kingsway	15	9	3	3	30	22	30
4	Perth SC	16	8	5	3	38	29	29
5	Fremantle City FC	16	6	6	4	32	26	24
6	Stirling Macedonia	16	7	2	7	32	26	23
7	Sorrento	16	6	2	8	18	27	20
8	Western Knights	16	5	4	7	29	30	19
9	Dianella White Eagles	16	5	4	7	26	29	19
10	Armadale	16	4	3	9	30	39	15
11	Perth Glory NPL	16	3	4	9	27	33	13
12	Balcatta	16	2	2	12	21	48	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Western Knights	Sorrento
Fremantle City FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
Bayswater City	4-4 D	1-2 L
Dianella White Eagles	0-1 L	1-2 L
Perth RedStar FC	1-2 L	1-4 L
Perth SC	3-4 L	1-2 L
Balcatta	0-0 D	3-0 W
Stirling Macedonia	2-1 W	1-0 W
Perth Glory NPL	1-3 L	1-0 W
Olympic Kingsway	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Western Knights

LDLWDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
20/06	Bayswater City Australia Western Australia Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	5	D
13/06	Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/06	Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
30/05	Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League	2-2	3-4	1	3	L
23/05	Balcatta Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
16/05	Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
09/05	Perth Glory NPL Australia Western Australia Premier League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
02/05	Curtin University SC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	1-1	15	3	D
25/04	Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	1-2	8	4	L

Sorrento

WWLLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
13/06	Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
06/06	Balcatta Australia Western Australia Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
30/05	Bayswater City Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
23/05	Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
16/05	Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
08/05	Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
25/04	Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
18/04	Perth Glory NPL Australia Western Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W