Football · Australia Western Australia Premier League · 04/07, 09:00
Perth Glory NPL vs Balcatta
Expected goals: 3.92 (Perth Glory NPL 2.19 · Balcatta 1.72). The model gives 48% home, 23% draw, 29% away. Under 3.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Perth Glory NPL 1448 · Balcatta 1419
| Perth Glory NPL | Draw | Balcatta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.92Perth Glory NPL 2.19 · Balcatta 1.72
Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 51%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Perth Glory NPL: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Perth Glory NPL | Balcatta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Perth Glory NPL 3–1–2 Balcatta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Balcatta | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Perth Glory NPL |
| 16/08/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Perth Glory NPL | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Balcatta |
| 31/05/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Balcatta | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Perth Glory NPL |
| 02/02/25 Australia Friendlies | Balcatta | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Perth Glory NPL |
| 29/06/24 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Perth Glory NPL | 3-4 HT 0-2 | Balcatta |
| 30/03/24 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Balcatta | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Perth Glory NPL |
Standings · Australia Western Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 22 | 33 |
| 2 | Perth RedStar FC | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | Olympic Kingsway | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 22 | 30 |
| 4 | Perth SC | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 29 | 29 |
| 5 | Fremantle City FC | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 26 | 24 |
| 6 | Stirling Macedonia | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 23 |
| 7 | Sorrento | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| 8 | Western Knights | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagles | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 19 |
| 10 | Armadale | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 39 | 15 |
| 11 | Perth Glory NPL | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 33 | 13 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 48 | 8 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Perth Glory NPL | Balcatta |
|---|---|---|
| Stirling Macedonia | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Perth RedStar FC | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Perth SC | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Olympic Kingsway | 1-2 L | 4-5 L |
| Armadale | 2-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Fremantle City FC | 3-4 L | 2-5 L |
| Bayswater City | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Western Knights | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Dianella White Eagles | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Sorrento | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 6 L | 1 W 2 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Perth Glory NPL (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Perth Glory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayswater City Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | Sorrento Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Balcatta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Sorrento Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Bayswater City Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |