Football · China Super League · 04/07, 13:00
Liaoning Ironman vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 2.49 (Liaoning Ironman 1.43 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.06). The model gives 45% home, 28% draw, 27% away. Over 2.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
45%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liaoning Ironman 1474 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1507
| Liaoning Ironman | Draw | Chongqing Tonglianglong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.49Liaoning Ironman 1.43 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.06
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 53%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chongqing Tonglianglong: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liaoning Ironman | Chongqing Tonglianglong | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.9 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liaoning Ironman 2–0–3 Chongqing Tonglianglong
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 China Super League | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 19/07/25 China Division 1 | Liaoning Ironman | 4-2 HT 4-1 | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
| 29/03/25 China Division 1 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 07/07/24 China Division 1 | Liaoning Ironman | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
| 09/03/24 China Division 1 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 21 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 17 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 8 |
| 16 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liaoning Ironman | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|---|---|
| Shandong Taishan | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Qingdao Hainiu | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Yunnan Yukun | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Henan | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chongqing Tonglianglong (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liaoning Ironman
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Dalian Kewei China FA Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 05/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/05 | Henan China Super League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
Chongqing Tonglianglong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Ningbo Professional FC China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/05 | Henan China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |