Football · China Super League · 04/07, 13:35

Dalian Young Boy vs Wuhan Three Towns

Expected goals: 2.97 (Dalian Young Boy 1.86 · Wuhan Three Towns 1.12). The model gives 53% home, 25% draw, 21% away. Over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

53%1

53% 25% 21%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dalian Young Boy 1449 · Wuhan Three Towns 1493

	Dalian Young Boy	Draw	Wuhan Three Towns
Our model	54%	25%	22%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.97Dalian Young Boy 1.86 · Wuhan Three Towns 1.12

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%

BTTSYes · 55%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wuhan Three Towns (rating 1449 vs 1493).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dalian Young Boy	Wuhan Three Towns
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.3	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 3.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.73 → 1.73 – 0%

X 3.60 → 3.60 – 0%

2 4.33 → 4.33 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dalian Young Boy 0–2–1 Wuhan Three Towns

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 China Super League	Wuhan Three Towns	4-1 HT 2-1	Dalian Young Boy
19/10/25 China Super League	Dalian Young Boy	0-0 HT 0-0	Wuhan Three Towns
11/05/25 China Super League	Wuhan Three Towns	2-2 HT 0-2	Dalian Young Boy

Standings · China Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	16	13	1	2	36	15	40
2	Chongqing Tonglianglong	16	7	6	3	20	16	27
3	Dalian Young Boy	16	7	1	8	22	29	22
4	Shandong Taishan	16	8	3	5	30	26	21
5	Yunnan Yukun	16	6	3	7	29	28	21
6	Qingdao West Coast	16	4	9	3	20	24	21
7	Beijing Guoan	16	6	5	5	27	23	18
8	Zhejiang	16	6	4	6	21	26	17
9	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	16	5	2	9	22	28	17
10	Liaoning Ironman	16	5	2	9	21	28	17
11	Shanghai Shenhua	16	7	5	4	33	25	16
12	Shanghai Port	16	5	5	6	25	22	15
13	Henan	16	6	3	7	17	20	15
14	Qingdao Hainiu	16	6	2	8	26	27	13
15	Wuhan Three Towns	16	2	7	7	22	31	8
16	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	16	3	6	7	19	22	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dalian Young Boy	Wuhan Three Towns
Shanghai Shenhua	1-4 L	2-2 D
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	0-1 L	2-2 D
Qingdao West Coast	2-3 L	1-1 D
Qingdao Hainiu	1-3 L	1-3 L
Beijing Guoan	0-3 L	0-1 L
Yunnan Yukun	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wuhan Three Towns (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dalian Young Boy

LWLLLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	1-2	1-4	8	2	L
19/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China FA Cup	1-0	6-5	9	6	W
31/05	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/05	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
19/05	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
15/05	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
10/05	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
06/05	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
01/05	Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
26/04	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	0-3	1-3	13	3	L

Wuhan Three Towns

LDLDDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/06	Qingdao Red Lions China FA Cup	0-0	4-3	12	3	W
31/05	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	0-0	1-1	7	9	D
24/05	Shandong Taishan China Super League	2-2	3-3	2	8	D
20/05	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
10/05	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/05	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
01/05	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
25/04	Shanghai Port China Super League	0-1	0-4	3	1	L