Football · China Super League · 04/07, 13:00
Qingdao West Coast vs Shanghai Port
Expected goals: 3.14 (Qingdao West Coast 1.5 · Shanghai Port 1.64). The model gives 33% home, 27% draw, 40% away. Over 2.5 goals (56%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Qingdao West Coast 1543 · Shanghai Port 1545
| Qingdao West Coast | Draw | Shanghai Port | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.14Qingdao West Coast 1.5 · Shanghai Port 1.64
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Shanghai Port: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Qingdao West Coast | Shanghai Port | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.7 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao West Coast 0–2–3 Shanghai Port
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Qingdao West Coast |
| 26/07/25 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Qingdao West Coast |
| 28/03/25 China Super League | Qingdao West Coast | 3-3 HT 3-1 | Shanghai Port |
| 28/09/24 China Super League | Shanghai Port | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Qingdao West Coast |
| 18/05/24 China Super League | Qingdao West Coast | 3-5 HT 1-3 | Shanghai Port |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 21 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 17 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 8 |
| 16 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Qingdao West Coast | Shanghai Port |
|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Beijing Guoan | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qingdao West Coast
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup |
1-1 | 6-5 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 26/04 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
Shanghai Port
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Henan China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Shanghai Segenda China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 19/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 15/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 10/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |