Prediction: Hobart City FC vs University of Tasmania
Expected goals: 4.5 (Hobart City FC 3.14 · University of Tasmania 1.36). The model gives 72% home, 15% draw, 13% away. Under 4.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Recent form leaves Hobart City FC with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; University of Tasmania has piled up 2-1-7 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Hobart City FC and 4 for University of Tasmania.
| Hobart City FC | Draw | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| Market | 72% | 15% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hobart City FC (rating 1529 vs 1436).
- H2H favours University of Tasmania: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hobart City FC | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 2.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.5 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hobart City FC 2–0–4 University of Tasmania
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Hobart City FC |
| 15/03/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | Hobart City FC | 4-2 HT 1-1 | University of Tasmania |
| 16/03/24 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 8-1 HT 2-1 | Hobart City FC |
| 08/07/23 Australia Tasmania Championship | Hobart City FC | 2-4 HT 1-0 | University of Tasmania |
| 04/03/23 Australia Friendlies | Hobart City FC | 1-6 HT 0-4 | University of Tasmania |
| 13/08/22 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hobart City FC |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart FC 2 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | New Town Eagles | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | Olympia FC Warriors | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 21 |
| 4 | Hobart City FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 20 | 19 |
| 5 | Taroona | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 16 | 17 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 29 | 16 |
| 7 | University of Tasmania | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 43 | 7 |
| 8 | Hobart United | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 57 | 7 |
| 9 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 5 |
| 10 | South East United FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hobart City FC | University of Tasmania |
|---|---|---|
| New Town Eagles | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Taroona | 2-2 D | 0-10 L |
| Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Olympia FC Warriors | 3-1 W | 2-4 L |
| South Hobart FC 2 | 3-2 W | 3-6 L |
| Clarence Zebras Reserves | 1-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Hobart United | 5-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Hobart City FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hobart City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/03 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/03 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
University of Tasmania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-6 | 0-10 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-3 | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-4 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/03 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-5 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hobart City FC vs University of Tasmania?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hobart City FC win (72%). Probabilities: Hobart City FC 72%, draw 15%, University of Tasmania 13%.
How many goals are expected in Hobart City FC vs University of Tasmania?
The model expects 4.5 goals (Hobart City FC 3.14 · University of Tasmania 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hobart City FC vs University of Tasmania?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.