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Football · Brazil Serie B · 01/07, 01:00

Botafogo SP vs CRB

Expected goals: 2.52 (Botafogo SP 1.37 · CRB 1.15). The model gives 40% home, 30% draw, 30% away. Over 2.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.

40%1
40% 30% 30%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1474 · CRB 1529
Botafogo SPDrawCRB
Our model41%29%30%
Market40%30%30%
Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.52Botafogo SP 1.37 · CRB 1.15
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CRB (rating 1474 vs 1529).
  • High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Botafogo SPCRB
Goals for / against (FT)0.7 / 0.92 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.41.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/60/30%50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.2 / 6.22.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.6 / 0.15.1 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 2–2–2 CRB

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DateHomeScoreAway
25/09/25
Brazil Serie B
CRB3-2
HT 2-0
Botafogo SP
27/05/25
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP2-1
HT 1-0
CRB
25/09/24
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP0-0
HT 0-0
CRB
18/07/24
Brazil Serie B
CRB4-1
HT 2-1
Botafogo SP
05/08/23
Brazil Serie B
CRB0-0
HT 0-0
Botafogo SP
29/04/23
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP2-0
HT 1-0
CRB

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBotafogo SPCRB
Operario PR 2-1 W 3-0 W
Ponte Preta 0-0 D 4-2 W
Cuiaba 1-1 D 0-2 L
Atletico GO 1-1 D 3-3 D
Record vs common 1 W 3 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CRB (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DDDLLLDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 54 W
15/06 Operario PR
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 2-1 27 W
09/06 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-1 95 L
02/06 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 126 D
26/05 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-2 66 L
16/05 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 57 L
11/05 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 16 L
02/05 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 114 D
23/04 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 47 D
19/04 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-1 75 D

CRB

WWWDWWLLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Fortaleza
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 72 D
13/06 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
 3-0 3-3 37 D
07/06 Sao Bernardo SP
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-3 87 L
01/06 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-2 32 L
24/05 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 1-2 4-2 123 W
18/05 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 2-1 26 W
15/05 Fortaleza
Copa do Brasil
 0-0 0-0 33 D
10/05 Operario PR
Brazil Serie B
 2-0 3-0 65 W
04/05 America MG
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-1 48 W
30/04 Sousa EC
Brazil Copa Nordeste
 2-0 3-0 78 W