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Football · Brazil Serie B · 04/07, 21:00

Gremio Novorizontino vs Atletico GO

Expected goals: 2.18 (Gremio Novorizontino 1.37 · Atletico GO 0.81). The model gives 49% home, 29% draw, 22% away. Under 2.25 goals (51%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.

49%1
49% 29% 22%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1561 · Atletico GO 1522
Gremio NovorizontinoDrawAtletico GO
Our model49%30%21%
Market50%28%22%
Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.18Gremio Novorizontino 1.37 · Atletico GO 0.81
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 51%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Gremio NovorizontinoAtletico GO
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 0.91.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.60.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.8 / 4.22.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.5 / 0.34.7 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 0–3–1 Atletico GO

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DateHomeScoreAway
09/09/25
Brazil Serie B
Gremio Novorizontino1-1
HT 0-0
Atletico GO
04/05/25
Brazil Serie B
Atletico GO1-0
HT 1-0
Gremio Novorizontino
02/11/23
Brazil Serie B
Atletico GO2-2
HT 1-2
Gremio Novorizontino
08/07/23
Brazil Serie B
Gremio Novorizontino2-2
HT 1-0
Atletico GO

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentGremio NovorizontinoAtletico GO
Ponte Preta 2-0 W 2-0 W
Goias 4-0 W 1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP 1-1 D 0-1 L
Ceara 2-1 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 3 W 1 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

WDLWDDWDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-1 65 W
23/06 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 2-0 65 W
15/06 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 2-2 56 D
11/06 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 4-0 44 W
31/05 Sao Bernardo SP
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-1 15 D
28/05 Chapecoense
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 1-1 2-2 41 D
23/05 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-1 55 W
21/05 Chapecoense
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 0-1 0-2 26 L
17/05 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 45 D
11/05 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 56 W

Atletico GO

DWDDLDWDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 2-0 2-0 33 W
19/06 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-1 44 D
13/06 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 0-3 3-3 137 D
09/06 America MG
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-1 21 W
30/05 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 97 D
24/05 Sao Bernardo SP
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 82 L
17/05 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 97 D
15/05 Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
 0-0 0-0 46 D
10/05 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-0 15 W
03/05 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 57 D