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Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/07, 02:00

Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta

Expected goals: 2.68 (Fortaleza 2.04 · Ponte Preta 0.64). The model gives 70% home, 20% draw, 10% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 2-0.

70%1
70% 20% 10%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortaleza 1494 · Ponte Preta 1402
FortalezaDrawPonte Preta
Our model69%21%10%
Market70%20%10%
Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.68Fortaleza 2.04 · Ponte Preta 0.64
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1494 vs 1402).
  • High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

FortalezaPonte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 1.20.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.40.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/20/30%20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)2.8 / 5.43.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.7 / 0.34.8 / 0.6

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 0–1–1 Ponte Preta

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DateHomeScoreAway
27/10/18
Brazil Serie B
Fortaleza1-1
HT 0-0
Ponte Preta
08/07/18
Brazil Serie B
Ponte Preta2-0
HT 2-0
Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentFortalezaPonte Preta
Sport Recife 2-1 W 1-3 L
CRB 1-1 D 2-4 L
America MG 0-3 L 1-0 W
Londrina 3-0 W 1-4 L
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 1 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortaleza

LWWLLLWLDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 2-1 25 W
21/06 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-1 72 D
17/06 America MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-3 103 L
10/06 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-0 48 W
06/06 Vitoria
Brazil Copa Nordeste
 1-0 1-2 64 L
03/06 Vitoria
Brazil Copa Nordeste
 0-0 1-2 38 L
30/05 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 71 L
28/05 Sport Recife
Brazil Copa Nordeste
 1-0 2-0 76 W
23/05 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 3-0 57 W
21/05 Sport Recife
Brazil Copa Nordeste
 0-1 1-2 36 L

Ponte Preta

WLLLLDLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-2 53 L
23/06 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-2 45 L
14/06 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-3 24 L
10/06 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-2 76 L
02/06 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 56 D
24/05 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 2-1 2-4 53 L
19/05 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-4 117 L
09/05 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
 1-2 1-3 119 L
03/05 Sao Bernardo SP
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-3 65 L
25/04 America MG
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-0 26 W