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Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/07, 01:00

Athletic Club MG vs Operario PR

Expected goals: 2.5 (Athletic Club MG 1.46 · Operario PR 1.04). The model gives 45% home, 30% draw, 25% away. Over 2 goals (55%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.

45%1
45% 30% 25%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1512 · Operario PR 1492
Athletic Club MGDrawOperario PR
Our model46%29%26%
Market45%31%25%
Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.5Athletic Club MG 1.46 · Operario PR 1.04
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 55%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Athletic Club MG: 2-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Athletic Club MGOperario PR
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 11.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.3 / 0.30.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 5.12.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.7 / 0.45.7 / 0.5

Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 2–0–0 Operario PR

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DateHomeScoreAway
09/10/25
Brazil Serie B
Operario PR1-4
HT 1-4
Athletic Club MG
15/06/25
Brazil Serie B
Athletic Club MG2-1
HT 1-1
Operario PR

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAthletic Club MGOperario PR
Goias 1-1 D 3-0 W
Botafogo SP 2-1 W 1-2 L
EC Juventude 1-1 D 2-1 W
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 0 L 2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

DDLDWWDDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Avai
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 82 W
20/06 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-2 84 L
14/06 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-1 58 D
11/06 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 22 D
30/05 Fortaleza
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 81 W
26/05 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 2-1 26 W
17/05 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 55 D
13/05 Internacional
Copa do Brasil
 1-2 2-3 62 L
09/05 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 65 D
05/05 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 16 D

Operario PR

LLLLDWWLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 America MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 75 W
21/06 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 3-0 3-0 03 W
15/06 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-2 37 L
06/06 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 2-1 47 W
31/05 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 2-1 210 W
25/05 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 85 D
16/05 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 1-2 2-6 75 L
13/05 Fluminense
Copa do Brasil
 0-2 1-2 18 L
10/05 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-3 15 L
07/05 Chapecoense
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 1-1 1-2 167 L