Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/07, 00:00
Vila Nova vs Sao Bernardo SP
Expected goals: 2.16 (Vila Nova 1.37 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.79). The model gives 50% home, 29% draw, 21% away. Under 2.25 goals (53%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1524 · Sao Bernardo SP 1526
| Vila Nova | Draw | Sao Bernardo SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.16Vila Nova 1.37 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.79
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 53%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vila Nova | Sao Bernardo SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.3 | 1.3 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 5 / 0.2 |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Sao Bernardo SP | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | EC Juventude | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 25 |
| 6 | Operario PR | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 9 | Athletic Club MG | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 22 |
| 10 | Goias | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | Atletico GO | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 12 | Nautico | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| 14 | Ceara | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 15 | Botafogo SP | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| 16 | CRB | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 16 |
| 17 | Londrina | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
| 18 | Avai | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 8 |
| 20 | America MG | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vila Nova | Sao Bernardo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio Novorizontino | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Londrina | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| America MG | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vila Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
4-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 12 | W |
| 24/05 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 05/05 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
Sao Bernardo SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 13/05 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Caxias RS Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |