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Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/07, 01:00

Cuiaba vs America MG

Expected goals: 2.15 (Cuiaba 1.4 · America MG 0.76). The model gives 51% home, 29% draw, 19% away. Over 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.

51%1
51% 29% 19%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cuiaba 1511 · America MG 1431
CuiabaDrawAmerica MG
Our model51%30%19%
Market52%29%20%
Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.15Cuiaba 1.4 · America MG 0.76
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 51%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cuiaba (rating 1511 vs 1431).
  • H2H favours Cuiaba: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

CuiabaAmerica MG
Goals for / against (FT)0.8 / 11 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.60.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/50/30%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)3 / 5.62.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.8 / 0.15.1 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cuiaba 3–2–1 America MG

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DateHomeScoreAway
16/11/25
Brazil Serie B
America MG1-1
HT 0-0
Cuiaba
24/07/25
Brazil Serie B
Cuiaba3-1
HT 1-1
America MG
16/09/23
Brazil Serie A
Cuiaba2-2
HT 2-2
America MG
07/05/23
Brazil Serie A
America MG1-2
HT 1-0
Cuiaba
29/09/22
Brazil Serie A
Cuiaba2-1
HT 1-0
America MG
04/06/22
Brazil Serie A
America MG2-1
HT 1-1
Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCuiabaAmerica MG
Vila Nova 1-0 W 1-2 L
CRB 2-0 W 1-2 L
Nautico 0-1 L 0-4 L
Criciuma 1-1 D 0-1 L
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 1 L 0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cuiaba (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cuiaba

LDDDLWWWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/06 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 2-2 97 D
21/06 Avai
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-1 132 L
14/06 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 52 W
10/06 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-1 36 W
01/06 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 2-0 2-0 72 W
23/05 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 15 L
17/05 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 85 D
09/05 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 65 D
02/05 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 31 D
30/04 Anapolis FC
Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste
 0-2 0-4 14 L

America MG

LWLDLLLWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 Operario PR
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 65 L
24/06 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-1 15 L
17/06 Fortaleza
Brazil Serie B
 2-0 3-0 03 W
09/06 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-2 81 L
30/05 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-3 52 L
24/05 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-2 46 L
16/05 Sao Bernardo SP
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 78 D
10/05 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 0-4 36 L
07/05 Cianorte
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 0-0 3-2 68 W
04/05 CRB
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-2 38 L