Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 02/07, 18:00
Tartu JK Welco vs Viimsi JK
Expected goals: 3.38 (Tartu JK Welco 1.89 · Viimsi JK 1.49). The model gives 46% home, 24% draw, 30% away. Under 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1549 · Viimsi JK 1585
| Tartu JK Welco | Draw | Viimsi JK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.38Tartu JK Welco 1.89 · Viimsi JK 1.49
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Viimsi JK: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tartu JK Welco | Viimsi JK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.8 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 1–1–4 Viimsi JK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 03/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Viimsi JK |
| 18/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 23/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 26/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Viimsi JK |
| 27/10/24 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 21 | 41 |
| 2 | Viimsi JK | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Elva | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 30 | 23 |
| 5 | JK Tallinna Kalev | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 33 | 21 |
| 6 | JK Nomme United II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 37 | 19 |
| 7 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 33 | 19 |
| 8 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 33 | 18 |
| 9 | JK Nomme Kalju II | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 40 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 43 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tartu JK Welco | Viimsi JK |
|---|---|---|
| JK Nomme United II | 5-2 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Tallinn | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| JK Nomme Kalju II | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Maardu Linnameeskond | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FC Flora Tallinn II | 3-3 D | 4-0 W |
| JK Tallinna Kalev | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tartu JK Welco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
3-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | D |
Viimsi JK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 16/04 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |