Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
SD Aucas vs Guayaquil City
Expected goals: 2.31 (SD Aucas 1.65 · Guayaquil City 0.66). The model gives 61% home, 25% draw, 14% away. Under 2.5 goals (55%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1548 · Guayaquil City 1479
| SD Aucas | Draw | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.31SD Aucas 1.65 · Guayaquil City 0.66
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1548 vs 1479).
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.5 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 3–1–2 Guayaquil City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SD Aucas |
| 01/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 29/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 28/08/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 17/04/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 4-0 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/11/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Emelec | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
Guayaquil City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | Astillero FC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |