Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Orense vs Tecnico Universitario
Expected goals: 2.28 (Orense 1.49 · Tecnico Universitario 0.79). The model gives 53% home, 28% draw, 19% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orense 1528 · Tecnico Universitario 1453
| Orense | Draw | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.28Orense 1.49 · Tecnico Universitario 0.79
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 52%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orense (rating 1528 vs 1453).
- H2H favours Tecnico Universitario: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orense | Tecnico Universitario | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 2–1–3 Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Orense |
| 08/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Orense |
| 11/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 10/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Tecnico Universitario |
| 21/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 07/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Tecnico Universitario | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Orense |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orense | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Guayaquil City | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Leones FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Delfin SC | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Orense (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Tecnico Universitario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 24/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 11 | L |
| 12/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |